Portuguese Election Forecast
Last model run:
Left Bloc Majority Prob.
(PS+BE+CDU+L ≥ 116)
Right Bloc Majority Prob.
(AD+IL ≥ 116)
No Bloc Majority Prob.
(Neither bloc ≥ 116)
AD Most Seats Prob.
(AD > PS and AD > CH)
PS Most Seats Prob.
(PS > AD and PS > CH)
CH Most Seats Prob.
(CH > AD and CH > PS)
Seat projections show likely outcomes for each party, with 116 seats needed for a majority (red line). The first chart displays the seat distribution per party, while the second illustrates the distribution of total seats for the left and right coalition blocs.
Seat Projection
Coalition Totals Distribution
District map colored by predicted leading party in each region. Click any district to see detailed vote share forecasts, or view national trends in the right panel when no district is selected.
District Forecast & Details
Most contested seats across Portugal where small shifts could change outcomes. The table shows seats closest to flipping, with probability breakdown bars showing which parties might win each seat. Click any row for detailed analysis.
Left: National voting intention trends with 95% credible intervals, combining polling data since 2024. Right: Estimated polling house effects showing systematic biases — red indicates pollsters overestimating parties, blue shows underestimation.
National Vote Intention
Modeled national vote share for major parties over time.
Pollster House-Effects
Data sources: Polling aggregation from national pollsters (Aximage, CESOP, Eurosondagem, Intercampus), historical election results from CNE, and demographic data from INE.