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  "model": "soccer_factor_model_contribution",
  "outcome": "contrib",
  "metric": "contrib_sar",
  "metric_label": "Contribution Above Replacement (winsorized goals+assists per 90)",
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      "sar_goals_only": 0.0785,
      "rank_goals_only": 83,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": 32,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 31,
      "player": "Jérémy Livolant",
      "team": "Casa Pia",
      "position": "F",
      "minutes": 4631,
      "matches": 60,
      "goals": 7,
      "assists": 12,
      "contributions": 19,
      "contrib_per_90": 0.369,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1889,
      "contrib_sar_lo": 0.08,
      "contrib_sar_hi": 0.3101,
      "contrib_sar_vs_position": 0.098,
      "contrib_skill_per_90": 0.3352,
      "p_above_replacement": 0.999,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.0534,
      "rank_goals_only": 99,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": 47,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 32,
      "player": "Ianis Stoica",
      "team": "Estrela Amadora",
      "position": "F",
      "minutes": 2293,
      "matches": 42,
      "goals": 7,
      "assists": 4,
      "contributions": 11,
      "contrib_per_90": 0.432,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1886,
      "contrib_sar_lo": 0.0533,
      "contrib_sar_hi": 0.3469,
      "contrib_sar_vs_position": 0.0978,
      "contrib_skill_per_90": 0.3349,
      "p_above_replacement": 0.9942,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.1497,
      "rank_goals_only": 46,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": -7,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 33,
      "player": "Vinícius Lopes",
      "team": "Santa Clara",
      "position": "F",
      "minutes": 4390,
      "matches": 69,
      "goals": 15,
      "assists": 3,
      "contributions": 18,
      "contrib_per_90": 0.369,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1834,
      "contrib_sar_lo": 0.0799,
      "contrib_sar_hi": 0.2988,
      "contrib_sar_vs_position": 0.0925,
      "contrib_skill_per_90": 0.3297,
      "p_above_replacement": 0.9998,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.178,
      "rank_goals_only": 36,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": -19,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 34,
      "player": "André Lacximicant",
      "team": "Estoril",
      "position": "F",
      "minutes": 2956,
      "matches": 71,
      "goals": 9,
      "assists": 6,
      "contributions": 15,
      "contrib_per_90": 0.457,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1807,
      "contrib_sar_lo": 0.0634,
      "contrib_sar_hi": 0.3084,
      "contrib_sar_vs_position": 0.0899,
      "contrib_skill_per_90": 0.327,
      "p_above_replacement": 0.9966,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.1058,
      "rank_goals_only": 68,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": 12,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 35,
      "player": "Fran Navarro",
      "team": "SC Braga",
      "position": "F",
      "minutes": 2512,
      "matches": 56,
      "goals": 11,
      "assists": 1,
      "contributions": 12,
      "contrib_per_90": 0.43,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1804,
      "contrib_sar_lo": 0.0601,
      "contrib_sar_hi": 0.3136,
      "contrib_sar_vs_position": 0.0895,
      "contrib_skill_per_90": 0.3267,
      "p_above_replacement": 0.9968,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.1845,
      "rank_goals_only": 33,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": -24,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 36,
      "player": "Gianluca Prestianni",
      "team": "Benfica",
      "position": "M",
      "minutes": 2510,
      "matches": 46,
      "goals": 8,
      "assists": 8,
      "contributions": 16,
      "contrib_per_90": 0.574,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1797,
      "contrib_sar_lo": 0.0581,
      "contrib_sar_hi": 0.3164,
      "contrib_sar_vs_position": 0.1807,
      "contrib_skill_per_90": 0.326,
      "p_above_replacement": 0.9971,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.0666,
      "rank_goals_only": 89,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": 31,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 37,
      "player": "Cihan Kahraman",
      "team": "Academico Viseu",
      "position": "M",
      "minutes": 640,
      "matches": 9,
      "goals": 1,
      "assists": 4,
      "contributions": 5,
      "contrib_per_90": 0.703,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1763,
      "contrib_sar_lo": 0.0059,
      "contrib_sar_hi": 0.397,
      "contrib_sar_vs_position": 0.1773,
      "contrib_skill_per_90": 0.3226,
      "p_above_replacement": 0.9579,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.0115,
      "rank_goals_only": 146,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": 87,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 38,
      "player": "Leandro Antonetti",
      "team": "Estrela Amadora",
      "position": "F",
      "minutes": 1138,
      "matches": 21,
      "goals": 4,
      "assists": 1,
      "contributions": 5,
      "contrib_per_90": 0.395,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1738,
      "contrib_sar_lo": 0.0278,
      "contrib_sar_hi": 0.351,
      "contrib_sar_vs_position": 0.083,
      "contrib_skill_per_90": 0.3202,
      "p_above_replacement": 0.9824,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.1427,
      "rank_goals_only": 51,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": -9,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 39,
      "player": "Rafik Guitane",
      "team": "Estoril",
      "position": "F",
      "minutes": 5883,
      "matches": 93,
      "goals": 9,
      "assists": 12,
      "contributions": 21,
      "contrib_per_90": 0.321,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1715,
      "contrib_sar_lo": 0.0746,
      "contrib_sar_hi": 0.2772,
      "contrib_sar_vs_position": 0.0807,
      "contrib_skill_per_90": 0.3178,
      "p_above_replacement": 0.9999,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.059,
      "rank_goals_only": 96,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": 34,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    },
    {
      "rank": 40,
      "player": "Yan Maranhão",
      "team": "Moreirense",
      "position": "F",
      "minutes": 1112,
      "matches": 35,
      "goals": 4,
      "assists": 1,
      "contributions": 5,
      "contrib_per_90": 0.405,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1712,
      "contrib_sar_lo": 0.0265,
      "contrib_sar_hi": 0.3386,
      "contrib_sar_vs_position": 0.0803,
      "contrib_skill_per_90": 0.3175,
      "p_above_replacement": 0.9799,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.1428,
      "rank_goals_only": 50,
      "rank_change_vs_goals_only": -13,
      "last_season": "2026-27"
    }
  ],
  "movers_vs_goals_only": [
    {
      "player": "Cihan Kahraman",
      "team": "Academico Viseu",
      "position": "M",
      "rank_contrib": 59,
      "rank_goals_only": 146,
      "rank_change": 87,
      "goals": 1,
      "assists": 4,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1763,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.0115
    },
    {
      "player": "Fabrício Garcia",
      "team": "Estoril",
      "position": "F",
      "rank_contrib": 155,
      "rank_goals_only": 88,
      "rank_change": -67,
      "goals": 3,
      "assists": 0,
      "contrib_sar": 0.0451,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.0673
    },
    {
      "player": "Naïs Djouahra",
      "team": "Arouca",
      "position": "M",
      "rank_contrib": 91,
      "rank_goals_only": 150,
      "rank_change": 59,
      "goals": 6,
      "assists": 8,
      "contrib_sar": 0.1284,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.0099
    },
    {
      "player": "Gabri Veiga",
      "team": "Porto",
      "position": "M",
      "rank_contrib": 23,
      "rank_goals_only": 82,
      "rank_change": 59,
      "goals": 7,
      "assists": 11,
      "contrib_sar": 0.2709,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.0786
    },
    {
      "player": "Luís Guilherme",
      "team": "Sporting CP",
      "position": "F",
      "rank_contrib": 133,
      "rank_goals_only": 77,
      "rank_change": -56,
      "goals": 1,
      "assists": 0,
      "contrib_sar": 0.0702,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.083
    },
    {
      "player": "Cédric Nuozzi",
      "team": "Alverca",
      "position": "F",
      "rank_contrib": 145,
      "rank_goals_only": 94,
      "rank_change": -51,
      "goals": 1,
      "assists": 0,
      "contrib_sar": 0.0524,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.06
    },
    {
      "player": "Gabriel Veron",
      "team": "Porto",
      "position": "F",
      "rank_contrib": 134,
      "rank_goals_only": 85,
      "rank_change": -49,
      "goals": 1,
      "assists": 0,
      "contrib_sar": 0.0691,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.0716
    },
    {
      "player": "Sergio Bermejo",
      "team": "Gil Vicente",
      "position": "F",
      "rank_contrib": 124,
      "rank_goals_only": 75,
      "rank_change": -49,
      "goals": 1,
      "assists": 0,
      "contrib_sar": 0.0768,
      "sar_goals_only": 0.0864
    }
  ],
  "positional_distribution": [
    {
      "position": "F",
      "n": 179,
      "median": 0.1539,
      "min": 0.0203,
      "max": 0.8446,
      "range": 0.8243,
      "iqr": 0.1321,
      "n_distinct_3dp": 144
    },
    {
      "position": "M",
      "n": 264,
      "median": 0.0164,
      "min": -0.0878,
      "max": 0.3496,
      "range": 0.4374,
      "iqr": 0.0823,
      "n_distinct_3dp": 162
    },
    {
      "position": "D",
      "n": 254,
      "median": -0.0751,
      "min": -0.1071,
      "max": 0.0308,
      "range": 0.1379,
      "iqr": 0.0256,
      "n_distinct_3dp": 84
    },
    {
      "position": "G",
      "n": 57,
      "median": -0.1434,
      "min": -0.1437,
      "max": -0.142,
      "range": 0.0017,
      "iqr": 0.0001,
      "n_distinct_3dp": 3
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Ranks and intervals are posterior summaries from a hierarchical model with shrinkage: low-minute players are pulled toward the replacement level, so a high raw goals+assists total does not guarantee a high rating.",
    "The interval is a 90% posterior interval on the metric, not a confidence interval on a count. Two players whose intervals overlap are not separated by this model.",
    "Goalkeepers are not measured by this metric. It counts attacking contribution, and 49 of 53 goalkeepers in the sample have zero goals and zero assists, so they sit at the floor by construction. Shot-stopping needs its own model (ADR-019).",
    "Defenders are only partially measured: the metric captures their attacking output (set-piece goals, assists) and says nothing about defending.",
    "This is a full-sample fit and is descriptive, not predictive. Any predictive use must go through the walk-forward panel (contrib_skill_walkforward.parquet), per ADR-017.",
    "Goals+assists counts penalties and assists as recorded by SofaScore; secondary assists are not counted.",
    "positional_distribution covers the whole fitted universe (2023-24 onwards, all players over the minutes cut), while the players list is the current-squad subset — the two are not the same population."
  ]
}