{ "season": "2026-27", "model": "soccer_factor_model", "metric": "sar", "metric_label": "Skill Above Replacement (winsorized goals per 90)", "interval_mass": 0.9, "current_squads_only": true, "generated_from": { "n_players": 754, "n_observations": 31272, "min_minutes": 600, "seasons": [ "2023-24", "2024-25", "2025-26", "2026-27" ], "time_variation": "season_re", "include_own_att": false, "ratings_source": "joint_sot", "max_rhat": 1.03, "divergences": 0 }, "appearances_through": "2026-10-25", "skill_change_note": "Season-to-season deltas are within posterior noise (sigma_season HDI includes 0). Each season estimate carries its own posterior sd; when the delta is smaller than that sd the change is indistinguishable from zero. Treat the per-season series as descriptive, not as evidence that a player's finishing skill changed.", "n_players": 40, "players": [ { "slug": "samu-aghehowa", "rank": 1, "player": "Samu Aghehowa", "player_id": 1503836, "team": "Porto", "position": "F", "minutes": 3741, "matches": 53, "goals": 32, "goals_per_90": 0.77, "sar": 0.426, "sar_sd": 0.0877, "skill_lo": 0.2853, "skill_hi": 0.5743, "xg_skill_per_90": 0.5241, "p_above_replacement": 1.0, "last_season": "2026-27", "seasons": [ { "season": "2024-25", "team": "Porto", "minutes": 2263, "matches": 30, "goals": 19, "goals_per_90": 0.756, "sar_season": 0.4372, "sar_season_sd": 0.0883 }, { "season": "2025-26", "team": "Porto", "minutes": 1414, "matches": 20, "goals": 13, "goals_per_90": 0.827, "sar_season": 0.441, "sar_season_sd": 0.0915 }, { "season": "2026-27", "team": "Porto", "minutes": 64, "matches": 3, "goals": 0, "goals_per_90": 0.0, "sar_season": 0.423, "sar_season_sd": 0.0978 } ], "skill_change": { "from_season": "2025-26", "to_season": "2026-27", "delta": -0.018, "delta_ref_sd": 0.1339, "within_noise": true }, "recent": [ { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 9, "date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Gil Vicente", "is_home": false, "started": false, "minutes": 30, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.3 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 8, "date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Maritimo", "is_home": false, "started": false, "minutes": 24, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.5 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 7, "date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Benfica", "is_home": true, "started": false, "minutes": 10, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.4 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 21, "date": "2026-02-09", "opponent": "Sporting CP", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 45, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.4 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 20, "date": "2026-02-02", "opponent": "Casa Pia", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.2 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 19, "date": "2026-01-26", "opponent": "Gil Vicente", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 77, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.9 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 18, "date": "2026-01-18", "opponent": "Vitoria SC", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 72, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 5.9 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 17, "date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Santa Clara", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.1 } ] }, { "slug": "vangelis-pavlidis", "rank": 2, "player": "Vangelis Pavlidis", "player_id": 795236, "team": "Benfica", "position": "F", "minutes": 5581, "matches": 75, "goals": 49, "goals_per_90": 0.79, "sar": 0.4217, "sar_sd": 0.0755, "skill_lo": 0.3025, "skill_hi": 0.5491, "xg_skill_per_90": 0.5198, "p_above_replacement": 1.0, "last_season": "2026-27", "seasons": [ { "season": "2024-25", "team": "Benfica", "minutes": 2275, "matches": 34, "goals": 19, "goals_per_90": 0.752, "sar_season": 0.4297, "sar_season_sd": 0.0743 }, { "season": "2025-26", "team": "Benfica", "minutes": 2667, "matches": 33, "goals": 22, "goals_per_90": 0.742, "sar_season": 0.4252, "sar_season_sd": 0.0766 }, { "season": "2026-27", "team": "Benfica", "minutes": 639, "matches": 8, "goals": 8, "goals_per_90": 1.127, "sar_season": 0.434, "sar_season_sd": 0.0852 } ], "skill_change": { "from_season": "2025-26", "to_season": "2026-27", "delta": 0.0088, "delta_ref_sd": 0.1146, "within_noise": true }, "recent": [ { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 8, "date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Vitoria SC", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 82, "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "rating": 7.9 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 7, "date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Porto", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.9 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 6, "date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Gil Vicente", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "rating": 8.1 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 3, "date": "2026-09-09", "opponent": "Moreirense", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 66, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.8 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 5, "date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Maritimo", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 82, "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "rating": 7.1 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 4, "date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Estoril", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 80, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.4 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 2, "date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Casa Pia", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 59, "goals": 3, "assists": 1, "rating": 10.0 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 1, "date": "2026-08-09", "opponent": "Academico Viseu", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.5 } ] }, { "slug": "pedro-goncalves", "rank": 3, "player": "Pedro Gonçalves", "player_id": 895764, "team": "Sporting CP", "position": "F", "minutes": 5467, "matches": 73, "goals": 29, "goals_per_90": 0.477, "sar": 0.3499, "sar_sd": 0.0745, "skill_lo": 0.2274, "skill_hi": 0.4767, "xg_skill_per_90": 0.448, "p_above_replacement": 1.0, "last_season": "2025-26", "seasons": [ { "season": "2023-24", "team": "Sporting CP", "minutes": 2591, "matches": 32, "goals": 11, "goals_per_90": 0.382, "sar_season": 0.3439, "sar_season_sd": 0.0756 }, { "season": "2024-25", "team": "Sporting CP", "minutes": 882, "matches": 14, "goals": 5, "goals_per_90": 0.51, "sar_season": 0.3489, "sar_season_sd": 0.0792 }, { "season": "2025-26", "team": "Sporting CP", "minutes": 1994, "matches": 27, "goals": 13, "goals_per_90": 0.587, "sar_season": 0.3755, "sar_season_sd": 0.082 } ], "skill_change": { "from_season": "2024-25", "to_season": "2025-26", "delta": 0.0266, "delta_ref_sd": 0.114, "within_noise": true }, "recent": [ { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 34, "date": "2026-05-16", "opponent": "Gil Vicente", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 73, "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "rating": 7.7 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 33, "date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Rio Ave", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 82, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.7 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 32, "date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Vitoria SC", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 78, "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "rating": 6.9 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 26, "date": "2026-04-29", "opponent": "Tondela", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 75, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.0 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 31, "date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "AVS", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 74, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.2 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 30, "date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Benfica", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 68, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.2 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 29, "date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Estrela Amadora", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 67, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.1 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 28, "date": "2026-04-03", "opponent": "Santa Clara", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 45, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.2 } ] }, { "slug": "jalen-blesa", "rank": 4, "player": "Jalen Blesa", "player_id": 1499082, "team": "Rio Ave", "position": "F", "minutes": 1863, "matches": 22, "goals": 10, "goals_per_90": 0.483, "sar": 0.2952, "sar_sd": 0.1008, "skill_lo": 0.143, "skill_hi": 0.4705, "xg_skill_per_90": 0.3933, "p_above_replacement": 1.0, "last_season": "2026-27", "seasons": [ { "season": "2025-26", "team": "Rio Ave", "minutes": 1077, "matches": 13, "goals": 7, "goals_per_90": 0.585, "sar_season": 0.3082, "sar_season_sd": 0.1045 }, { "season": "2026-27", "team": "Rio Ave", "minutes": 786, "matches": 9, "goals": 3, "goals_per_90": 0.344, "sar_season": 0.2969, "sar_season_sd": 0.105 } ], "skill_change": { "from_season": "2025-26", "to_season": "2026-27", "delta": -0.0113, "delta_ref_sd": 0.1481, "within_noise": true }, "recent": [ { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 9, "date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Famalicao", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.8 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 8, "date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Nacional", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 78, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 8.1 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 7, "date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Alverca", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.9 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 6, "date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Estrela Amadora", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 8.0 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 5, "date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Santa Clara", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.7 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 4, "date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Sporting CP", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 86, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.7 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 3, "date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Estoril", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "rating": 8.6 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 2, "date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Porto", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.8 } ] }, { "slug": "yanis-begraoui", "rank": 5, "player": "Yanis Begraoui", "player_id": 930246, "team": "Estoril", "position": "F", "minutes": 5286, "matches": 75, "goals": 33, "goals_per_90": 0.562, "sar": 0.2681, "sar_sd": 0.0679, "skill_lo": 0.1606, "skill_hi": 0.3849, "xg_skill_per_90": 0.3662, "p_above_replacement": 1.0, "last_season": "2026-27", "seasons": [ { "season": "2024-25", "team": "Estoril", "minutes": 1930, "matches": 34, "goals": 11, "goals_per_90": 0.513, "sar_season": 0.2683, "sar_season_sd": 0.0706 }, { "season": "2025-26", "team": "Estoril", "minutes": 2726, "matches": 34, "goals": 20, "goals_per_90": 0.66, "sar_season": 0.2838, "sar_season_sd": 0.0715 }, { "season": "2026-27", "team": "Estoril", "minutes": 630, "matches": 7, "goals": 2, "goals_per_90": 0.286, "sar_season": 0.2657, "sar_season_sd": 0.0757 } ], "skill_change": { "from_season": "2025-26", "to_season": "2026-27", "delta": -0.0181, "delta_ref_sd": 0.1041, "within_noise": true }, "recent": [ { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 7, "date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Casa Pia", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.0 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 6, "date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "SC Braga", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 5.9 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 5, "date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Arouca", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.1 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 4, "date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Benfica", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.7 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 3, "date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Rio Ave", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.0 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 2, "date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Nacional", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.4 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 1, "date": "2026-08-07", "opponent": "Famalicao", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 8.3 }, { "season": "2025-26", "matchday": 34, "date": "2026-05-16", "opponent": "Benfica", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.5 } ] }, { "slug": "goncalo-paciencia", "rank": 6, "player": "Gonçalo Paciência", "player_id": 138890, "team": "Santa Clara", "position": "F", "minutes": 1115, "matches": 20, "goals": 8, "goals_per_90": 0.646, "sar": 0.2679, "sar_sd": 0.1066, "skill_lo": 0.1091, "skill_hi": 0.4616, "xg_skill_per_90": 0.366, "p_above_replacement": 1.0, "last_season": "2026-27", "seasons": [ { "season": "2025-26", "team": "Santa Clara", "minutes": 507, "matches": 12, "goals": 3, "goals_per_90": 0.533, "sar_season": 0.2706, "sar_season_sd": 0.1087 }, { "season": "2026-27", "team": "Santa Clara", "minutes": 608, "matches": 8, "goals": 5, "goals_per_90": 0.74, "sar_season": 0.276, "sar_season_sd": 0.1098 } ], "skill_change": { "from_season": "2025-26", "to_season": "2026-27", "delta": 0.0054, "delta_ref_sd": 0.1545, "within_noise": true }, "recent": [ { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 8, "date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Casa Pia", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.8 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 7, "date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "SC Braga", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 71, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.0 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 6, "date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Arouca", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 73, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.2 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 5, "date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Rio Ave", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 76, "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "rating": 6.0 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 4, "date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Alverca", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 71, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.3 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 3, "date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Famalicao", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 74, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.5 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 2, "date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Academico Viseu", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 63, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.8 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 1, "date": "2026-08-10", "opponent": "Nacional", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "rating": 8.3 } ] }, { "slug": "gustavo-silva", "rank": 7, "player": "Gustavo Silva", "player_id": 1468082, "team": "Vitoria SC", "position": "F", "minutes": 2931, "matches": 52, "goals": 13, "goals_per_90": 0.399, "sar": 0.2607, "sar_sd": 0.083, "skill_lo": 0.1294, "skill_hi": 0.4018, "xg_skill_per_90": 0.3588, "p_above_replacement": 1.0, "last_season": "2026-27", "seasons": [ { "season": "2024-25", "team": "Vitoria SC", "minutes": 865, "matches": 21, "goals": 7, "goals_per_90": 0.728, "sar_season": 0.276, "sar_season_sd": 0.0901 }, { "season": "2025-26", "team": "Vitoria SC", "minutes": 1466, "matches": 23, "goals": 5, "goals_per_90": 0.307, "sar_season": 0.2601, "sar_season_sd": 0.085 }, { "season": "2026-27", "team": "Vitoria SC", "minutes": 600, "matches": 8, "goals": 1, "goals_per_90": 0.15, "sar_season": 0.2589, "sar_season_sd": 0.0888 } ], "skill_change": { "from_season": "2025-26", "to_season": "2026-27", "delta": -0.0012, "delta_ref_sd": 0.1229, "within_noise": true }, "recent": [ { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 9, "date": "2026-10-23", "opponent": "Maritimo", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 66, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 7.2 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 7, "date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Moreirense", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 12, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 6.5 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 6, "date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Academico Viseu", "is_home": false, "started": true, "minutes": 90, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 5.7 }, { "season": "2026-27", "matchday": 5, "date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Casa Pia", "is_home": true, "started": true, "minutes": 98, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "rating": 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