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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Alverca

Liga Portugal forecast for Alverca: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)
Relegation
1.5%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 43 (90% of simulations between 33 and 53)Most likely finish: 9th (12%)Attack: 8th · Defence: 9th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Alverca can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
1.6%
5th
5.2%
6th
8.1%
7th
10%
8th
12%
9th
12%
10th
12%
11th
11%
12th
9.4%
13th
6.9%
14th
4.8%
15th
3.1%
16th
2.0%
17th
1.0%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd<0.1%
4th1.6%
5th5.2%
6th8.1%
7th10%
8th12%
9th12%
10th12%
11th11%
12th9.4%
13th6.9%
14th4.8%
15th3.1%
16th2.0%
17th1.0%
18th0.5%

9th is the most likely finish (12%); 67% of the simulations end between 7th and 12th.

Next match

What is at stake for Alverca against Benfica

Alverca: relegation· Next match · Mon 2 Nov · 20:15 · away

Now
1.5%
If they win
0.6%
If they draw
1.1%
If they lose
1.6%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model8.4%
MD1 · 11 Aug11%
MD2 · 14 Aug11%
MD3 · 29 Aug13%
MD4 · 5 Sept13%
MD5 · 12 Sept9.9%
MD6 · 19 Sept10%
MD7 · 25 Sept3.0%
MD8 · 17 Oct1.0%
MD9 · 25 Oct2.2%
MD10 · 1 Nov1.5%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Alverca's relegation chance (now 1.5%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Alverca and Vitória

Who finishes with more points, Alverca or another club of your choice.

Alverca

Relegation: 1.5%Points (median): 43
Relegation: 1.4%Points (median): 43

Alverca finish with more points than Vitória in 48% of the seasons; Vitória, in 47%; they finish level on points in 5.0%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Alverca and Vitória
Points gap at the end of the season: Alverca and Vitória
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Alverca ahead by 22–28 pts62.0%
Alverca ahead by 15–21 pts206.7%
Alverca ahead by 8–14 pts3913%
Alverca ahead by 1–7 pts8027%
level on points155.0%
Vitória ahead by 1–7 pts9030%
Vitória ahead by 8–14 pts3411%
Vitória ahead by 15–21 pts155.0%
Vitória ahead by 22–28 pts10.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 1 NovHow the model works

The games Alverca has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Benficaaway · MD10postponed
  2. Sat 7 Nov · 18:00Casa Piahome · MD11
  3. Sat 28 Novprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD12
  4. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateMoreirensehome · MD13
  5. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateVitóriaaway · MD14
  6. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateGil Vicentehome · MD15
  7. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateEstorilaway · MD16
  8. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateMarítimohome · MD17
  9. Sun 17 Janprovisional datePortohome · MD18
  10. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD19
  11. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateSportinghome · MD20
  12. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateSanta Claraaway · MD21
  13. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateSp. Bragaaway · MD22
  14. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateNacionalhome · MD23
  15. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD24
  16. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateFamalicãohome · MD25
  17. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateAroucaaway · MD26
  18. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateBenficahome · MD27
  19. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD28
  20. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD29
  21. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD30
  22. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD31
  23. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD32
  24. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD33
  25. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data