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Liga Portugal 2026-27 · MD10

Porto win the league in just over six in ten simulated seasons

In 32,089 of 50,000 simulated seasons. Benfica in 11,143, Sporting in 6,764 and Sp. Braga in 5.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov) · Porto +3.0 pp on the title since the forecast after matchday 9

Predicted standings

Predicted standings based on 50,000 simulations. Mean points and probabilities for each outcome.

Choose a club in the table to see its page.

Ordered by predicted end-of-season points (Pred.). Current points are on each club's page and on a wider screen.

TeamModel forecast
#TeamPredicted ptsChampionRelegation
1Porto83.4
90% of simulations between 74–92
64%, up 3.0 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 90%
2Benfica78.0
90% of simulations between 68–87
22%, down 1.9 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 90%
3Sporting76.2
90% of simulations between 67–85
14%, down 1.2 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 90%
4Sp. Braga57.9
90% of simulations between 48–68
<0.1%0%
5Santa Clara51.6
90% of simulations between 42–62
0%<0.1%
6Arouca48.5
90% of simulations between 39–59
0%0.1%
7Gil Vicente46.1
90% of simulations between 36–57
0%0.4%
8Ac. Viseu44.5
90% of simulations between 35–55
0%0.6%, down 1.3 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 9
9Famalicão43.2
90% of simulations between 33–53
0%1.1%
10Vitória43.2
90% of simulations between 33–54
0%1.4%
11Alverca42.9
90% of simulations between 33–53
0%1.5%
12Moreirense39.9
90% of simulations between 30–50
0%3.8%, down 4.9 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 9
13Estrela33.7
90% of simulations between 24–43
0%21%, up 2.2 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 9
14Rio Ave33.3
90% of simulations between 24–43
0%26%, up 2.6 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 9
15Estoril32.4
90% of simulations between 22–43
0%29%
16Nacional31.9
90% of simulations between 22–42
0%32%, up 2.6 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 9
17Casa Pia31.3
90% of simulations between 22–41
0%38%, down 2.8 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 9
18Marítimo30.3
90% of simulations between 21–40
0%46%, up 3.0 percentage points since the forecast after matchday 9

On a wider screen the table also shows current points, goal difference and top 3; each club's page has everything.

Relegation = 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Points above and below xG

Expected points (xPts) computed from each match's expected goals (xG), compared with actual points. This measures finishing efficiency and variance — it is not a clean split between luck and talent.

Actual points minus expected points (xPts). Furthest above: Ac. Viseu (+9.5); furthest below: Estoril (−8.1). Every club's values are in the table below.

View as table: Actual points and expected points from xG, by team
Actual points and expected points from xG, by team
TeamPointsExpected (xPts)Difference
Ac. Viseu2010.5+9.5
Porto3022.1+7.9
Moreirense148.2+5.8
Arouca2014.4+5.6
Santa Clara2116.6+4.4
Benfica2220.1+1.9
Sporting2120.6+0.4
Gil Vicente1413.8+0.2
Alverca1111.1−0.1
Rio Ave78.0−1.0
Famalicão1011.2−1.2
Casa Pia78.8−1.8
Marítimo810.7−2.7
Nacional710.0−3.0
Estrela1013.5−3.5
Sp. Braga1417.8−3.8
Vitória815.9−7.9
Estoril210.1−8.1

Fixtures to come

Matchdays 10 and 11 · 2–8 November

In kickoff order, Lisbon time. Under each game, what it puts at stake for the club playing whose title or relegation chance it moves most: that chance if they win, draw or lose. How we measure each match's weight

Chances of a home win, a draw and an away win, and what each game puts at stake
Game, Lisbon timeHomeDrawAway
Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Gil Vicente – Vitória35%29%35%
Little at stake: neither club’s title or relegation chance moves by 5 percentage points.
Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Benfica – Alverca78%15%8%
Benfica’s title chance: 24% if they win, 16% if they draw, 14% if they lose.
Fri 6 Nov · 20:45Famalicão – Arouca48%27%26%
Little at stake: neither club’s title or relegation chance moves by 5 percentage points.
Sat 7 Nov · 15:30Nacional – Ac. Viseu43%27%30%
Nacional’s relegation chance: 24% if they win, 35% if they draw, 41% if they lose.
Sat 7 Nov · 18:00Alverca – Casa Pia51%26%23%
Casa Pia’s relegation chance: 26% if they win, 38% if they draw, 44% if they lose.
Sat 7 Nov · 20:30Sporting – Moreirense84%11%5%
Sporting’s title chance: 15% if they win, 8.1% if they draw, 6.6% if they lose.
Chances of a home win, a draw and an away win, and what each game puts at stake
Game, Lisbon timeHomeDrawAway
Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Santa Clara – Gil Vicente39%31%30%
Little at stake: neither club’s title or relegation chance moves by 5 percentage points.
Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Estoril – Marítimo55%24%21%
Marítimo’s relegation chance: 30% if they win, 43% if they draw, 53% if they lose.
Sun 8 Nov · 18:00Vitória – Porto15%23%62%
Porto’s title chance: 69% if they win, 58% if they draw, 52% if they lose.
Sun 8 Nov · 20:30Rio Ave – Sp. Braga18%22%60%
Rio Ave’s relegation chance: 16% if they win, 24% if they draw, 30% if they lose.
Sun 8 Nov · 20:30Estrela – Benfica8%15%76%
Estrela’s relegation chance: 11% if they win, 18% if they draw, 23% if they lose.

What we said and what happened

Each count of the season, with the range the model gave it before the games.

Results
CountThe model’s range (90%) and what happenedThe modelHappened
Home wins80 gamesexpected 33.5range 27–4032inside
Draws80 gamesexpected 19.1range 13–2514inside
Away wins80 gamesexpected 27.3range 21–3434inside
Favourite wins, by how sure the model was
CountThe model’s range (90%) and what happenedThe modelHappened
Favourite at 70% or more17 gamesexpected 13.2range 10–1615inside
Favourite at 55% to 70%14 gamesexpected 8.7range 6–129inside
Favourite at 40% to 55%39 gamesexpected 17.9range 13–2317inside
Favourite under 40%10 gamesexpected 3.7range 1–66inside

what has already happenedthe model’s margin, 90%

This season's 80 games with probabilities published before kickoff. The range is each count's distribution if the published probabilities were right, game by game (it falls inside 90% of the time); with few games, the ranges are wide.

Title race

Chance of the title, matchday by matchday

One line per club that has been above 1%. Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

Read with care: in past seasons the model underrated teams leading by 3 or more points (it gave them 63% on average, and they won the title 82% of the time, leaving out two cases with a data error). How we checked

View as table: Champion (%)
Champion (%)
TeamMD10 · 1 NovMD9 · 25 OctMD8 · 17 OctMD7 · 25 SeptMD6 · 19 SeptMD5 · 12 SeptMD4 · 5 SeptMD3 · 29 AugMD2 · 14 AugMD1 · 11 AugMD0 · 10 Aug · previous model
Porto64%61%49%51%26%22%24%19%18%18%16%
Benfica22%24%22%22%30%25%21%22%22%22%24%
Sporting14%15%29%26%44%53%55%59%60%59%59%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations of the rest of the seasonUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Relegation battle

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Relegation means finishing 17th or 18th; 16th goes to a play-off and is not counted here. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
TeamMD10 · 1 NovMD9 · 25 OctMD8 · 17 OctMD7 · 25 SeptMD6 · 19 SeptMD5 · 12 SeptMD4 · 5 SeptMD3 · 29 AugMD2 · 14 AugMD1 · 11 AugMD0 · 10 Aug · previous model
Marítimo46%43%31%31%18%14%13%13%15%16%42%
Casa Pia38%41%53%47%66%63%63%54%42%42%25%
Nacional32%30%43%39%20%20%14%9.5%13%12%12%
Estoril29%28%18%14%16%14%12%12%6.9%7.1%4.1%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations of the rest of the seasonUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Team strengths

Estimated attack and defence

Each club's estimated attack and defence against the league average. Best attack: Sporting; best defence: Porto. The values are in the table below.

View as table: Attack and defence strengths by team, on a log scale centred on the league average; positive is better in both columns
Attack and defence strengths by team, on a log scale centred on the league average; positive is better in both columns
TeamAttackDefence
Sporting+0.76+0.63
Porto+0.64+0.71
Benfica+0.73+0.52
Sp. Braga+0.42+0.34
Vitória+0.11+0.17
Famalicão+0.10+0.16
Santa Clara−0.05+0.22
Gil Vicente0.00+0.14
Estoril+0.12−0.02
Alverca+0.04+0.05
Arouca+0.020.00
Rio Ave0.00−0.11
Moreirense−0.13−0.02
Nacional−0.08−0.10
Estrela−0.14−0.07
Ac. Viseu−0.14−0.10
Casa Pia−0.16−0.10
Marítimo−0.15−0.17
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations of the rest of the seasonUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

More on the Liga

We simulated the rest of the season 50,000 times, varying each match result based on team performance, squad value, and home advantage. The probabilities shown reflect how often each outcome occurs across those simulations.

MethodologyOpen forecast data