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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Gil Vicente

Liga Portugal forecast for Gil Vicente: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)

Champion, top 3 and relegation: below 1% in the simulations (relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted).

Expected points: 46 (90% of simulations between 36 and 57)Most likely finish: 7th (14%)Attack: 11th · Defence: 8th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Gil Vicente can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
4.2%
5th
11%
6th
13%
7th
14%
8th
13%
9th
12%
10th
10%
11th
8.0%
12th
5.5%
13th
3.7%
14th
2.3%
15th
1.3%
16th
0.6%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd<0.1%
4th4.2%
5th11%
6th13%
7th14%
8th13%
9th12%
10th10%
11th8.0%
12th5.5%
13th3.7%
14th2.3%
15th1.3%
16th0.6%
17th0.3%
18th0.1%

7th is the most likely finish (14%); 74% of the simulations end between 5th and 10th.

Next match

What is at stake for Gil Vicente

Next match · Mon 2 Nov · 20:15 · at home

Neither the title nor relegation reaches 1% for Gil Vicente in this forecast.

Match analysis

The games Gil Vicente has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Vitóriahome · MD10postponed
  2. Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Santa Claraaway · MD11
  3. Sun 29 Novprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD12
  4. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD13
  5. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateSportinghome · MD14
  6. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateAlvercaaway · MD15
  7. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateAroucahome · MD16
  8. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateNacionalaway · MD17
  9. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD18
  10. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateSp. Bragahome · MD19
  11. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD20
  12. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateFamalicãohome · MD21
  13. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD22
  14. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateBenficahome · MD23
  15. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD24
  16. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateMoreirensehome · MD25
  17. Sun 14 Marprovisional datePortoaway · MD26
  18. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateVitóriaaway · MD27
  19. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateSanta Clarahome · MD28
  20. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateEstorilaway · MD29
  21. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateEstrelahome · MD30
  22. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateSportingaway · MD31
  23. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateAlvercahome · MD32
  24. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateAroucaaway · MD33
  25. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateNacionalhome · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data