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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Famalicão

Liga Portugal forecast for Famalicão: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)
Relegation
1.1%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 43 (90% of simulations between 33 and 53)Most likely finish: 9th (13%)Attack: 7th · Defence: 7th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Famalicão can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
1.7%
5th
5.5%
6th
8.8%
7th
11%
8th
12%
9th
13%
10th
12%
11th
11%
12th
8.7%
13th
6.4%
14th
4.4%
15th
2.8%
16th
1.5%
17th
0.8%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th1.7%
5th5.5%
6th8.8%
7th11%
8th12%
9th13%
10th12%
11th11%
12th8.7%
13th6.4%
14th4.4%
15th2.8%
16th1.5%
17th0.8%
18th0.3%

9th is the most likely finish (13%); 77% of the simulations end between 6th and 12th.

Next match

What is at stake for Famalicão against Arouca

Famalicão: relegation· Next match · Fri 6 Nov · 20:45 · at home

Now
1.1%
If they win
0.6%
If they draw
1.2%
If they lose
1.9%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Famalicão winning this match: 48%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model0.8%
MD1 · 11 Aug1.4%
MD2 · 14 Aug1.5%
MD3 · 29 Aug2.9%
MD4 · 5 Sept3.6%
MD5 · 12 Sept3.7%
MD6 · 19 Sept3.0%
MD7 · 25 Sept1.4%
MD8 · 17 Oct2.3%
MD9 · 25 Oct1.2%
MD10 · 1 Nov1.1%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Famalicão's relegation chance (now 1.1%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Famalicão and Vitória

Who finishes with more points, Famalicão or another club of your choice.

Famalicão

Relegation: 1.1%Points (median): 43
Relegation: 1.4%Points (median): 43

Famalicão finish with more points than Vitória in 51% of the seasons; Vitória, in 45%; they finish level on points in 4.0%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Famalicão and Vitória
Points gap at the end of the season: Famalicão and Vitória
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Famalicão ahead by 22–28 pts41.3%
Famalicão ahead by 15–21 pts124.0%
Famalicão ahead by 8–14 pts5920%
Famalicão ahead by 1–7 pts7726%
level on points124.0%
Vitória ahead by 1–7 pts7826%
Vitória ahead by 8–14 pts4816%
Vitória ahead by 15–21 pts93.0%
Vitória ahead by 22–28 pts10.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 1 NovHow the model works

The games Famalicão has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Fri 6 Nov · 20:45Aroucahome · MD11
  2. Mon 30 Novprovisional dateBenficaaway · MD12
  3. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD13
  4. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD14
  5. Sun 20 Decprovisional datePortohome · MD15
  6. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD16
  7. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD17
  8. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD18
  9. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD19
  10. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateSanta Clarahome · MD20
  11. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD21
  12. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateEstrelahome · MD22
  13. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateSportingaway · MD23
  14. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateNacionalhome · MD24
  15. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateAlvercaaway · MD25
  16. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateRio Avehome · MD26
  17. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateSp. Bragahome · MD27
  18. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateAroucaaway · MD28
  19. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateBenficahome · MD29
  20. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD30
  21. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateMoreirensehome · MD31
  22. Sun 2 Mayprovisional datePortoaway · MD32
  23. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateCasa Piahome · MD33
  24. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateVitóriaaway · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data