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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Moreirense

Liga Portugal forecast for Moreirense: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)
Relegation
3.8%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 40 (90% of simulations between 30 and 50)Most likely finish: 12th (13%)Attack: 14th · Defence: 12th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Moreirense can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

5th
1.7%
6th
3.4%
7th
5.3%
8th
7.2%
9th
9.6%
10th
11%
11th
13%
12th
13%
13th
11%
14th
8.9%
15th
6.6%
16th
4.5%
17th
2.7%
18th
1.1%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th0.4%
5th1.7%
6th3.4%
7th5.3%
8th7.2%
9th9.6%
10th11%
11th13%
12th13%
13th11%
14th8.9%
15th6.6%
16th4.5%
17th2.7%
18th1.1%

12th is the most likely finish (13%); 67% of the simulations end between 9th and 14th.

Next match

What is at stake for Moreirense against Sporting

Moreirense: relegation· Next match · Sat 7 Nov · 20:30 · away

Now
3.8%
If they win
1.1%
If they draw
2.6%
If they lose
4.1%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Moreirense winning this match: 4.5%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model11%
MD1 · 11 Aug14%
MD2 · 14 Aug14%
MD3 · 29 Aug18%
MD4 · 5 Sept12%
MD5 · 12 Sept15%
MD6 · 19 Sept9.6%
MD7 · 25 Sept12%
MD8 · 17 Oct15%
MD9 · 25 Oct8.8%
MD10 · 1 Nov3.8%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Moreirense's relegation chance (now 3.8%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Moreirense and Alverca

Who finishes with more points, Moreirense or another club of your choice.

Moreirense

Relegation: 3.8%Points (median): 40
Relegation: 1.5%Points (median): 43

Moreirense finish with more points than Alverca in 30% of the seasons; Alverca, in 65%; they finish level on points in 4.3%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 5 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Moreirense and Alverca
Points gap at the end of the season: Moreirense and Alverca
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Moreirense ahead by 22–28 pts20.7%
Moreirense ahead by 15–21 pts20.7%
Moreirense ahead by 8–14 pts279.0%
Moreirense ahead by 1–7 pts6020%
level on points134.3%
Alverca ahead by 1–7 pts10033%
Alverca ahead by 8–14 pts6823%
Alverca ahead by 15–21 pts206.7%
Alverca ahead by 22–28 pts82.7%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 1 NovHow the model works

The games Moreirense has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Sat 7 Nov · 20:30Sportingaway · MD11
  2. Sat 28 Novprovisional dateSanta Clarahome · MD12
  3. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateAlvercaaway · MD13
  4. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateFamalicãohome · MD14
  5. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateNacionalaway · MD15
  6. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD16
  7. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD17
  8. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateSp. Bragaaway · MD18
  9. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateAroucahome · MD19
  10. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateBenficaaway · MD20
  11. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateCasa Piahome · MD21
  12. Sun 14 Febprovisional datePortohome · MD22
  13. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD23
  14. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD24
  15. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD25
  16. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD26
  17. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD27
  18. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateSportinghome · MD28
  19. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateSanta Claraaway · MD29
  20. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateAlvercahome · MD30
  21. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateFamalicãoaway · MD31
  22. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateNacionalhome · MD32
  23. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD33
  24. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateRio Avehome · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data