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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Estoril

Liga Portugal forecast for Estoril: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)
Relegation
29%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 32 (90% of simulations between 22 and 43)Most likely finish: 16th (14%)Attack: 5th · Defence: 11th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Estoril can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

7th
0.8%
8th
1.4%
9th
2.2%
10th
3.5%
11th
5.4%
12th
7.6%
13th
10%
14th
12%
15th
13%
16th
14%
17th
14%
18th
14%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th<0.1%
5th0.2%
6th0.3%
7th0.8%
8th1.4%
9th2.2%
10th3.5%
11th5.4%
12th7.6%
13th10%
14th12%
15th13%
16th14%
17th14%
18th14%

16th is the most likely finish (14%); 79% of the simulations end between 13th and 18th.

Next match

What is at stake for Estoril against Marítimo

Estoril: relegation· Next match · Sun 8 Nov · 15:30 · at home

Now
29%
If they win
21%
If they draw
33%
If they lose
41%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Estoril winning this match: 55%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model4.1%
MD1 · 11 Aug7.1%
MD2 · 14 Aug6.9%
MD3 · 29 Aug12%
MD4 · 5 Sept12%
MD5 · 12 Sept14%
MD6 · 19 Sept16%
MD7 · 25 Sept14%
MD8 · 17 Oct18%
MD9 · 25 Oct28%
MD10 · 1 Nov29%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Estoril's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Estoril's relegation chance by 13 to 20 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 11Marítimo(H)
  2. Matchday 12Gil Vicente(A)
  3. Matchday 13Vitória(H)
  4. Matchday 14Santa Clara(H)
  5. Matchday 15Sporting(A)
  6. Matchday 16Alverca(H)
The other 18 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 17Estrela(A)
  2. Matchday 18Famalicão(A)
  3. Matchday 19Nacional(H)
  4. Matchday 20Rio Ave(A)
  5. Matchday 21Benfica(H)
  6. Matchday 22Arouca(A)
  7. Matchday 23Sp. Braga(H)
  8. Matchday 24Casa Pia(A)
  9. Matchday 25Ac. Viseu(H)
  10. Matchday 26Moreirense(A)
  11. Matchday 27Porto(H)
  12. Matchday 28Marítimo(A)
  13. Matchday 29Gil Vicente(H)
  14. Matchday 30Vitória(A)
  15. Matchday 31Santa Clara(A)
  16. Matchday 32Sporting(H)
  17. Matchday 33Alverca(A)
  18. Matchday 34Estrela(H)

Relegation · now

29%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

Other clubs' games, in the published round and postponed, whose result moves Estoril's relegation chance (now 29%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise. In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sat 7 Nov · 15:30 · matchday 11

    Nacional – Ac. Viseu

    Estoril's relegation chance: 30% if Nacional win, 28% with a draw, 27% if Ac. Viseu win.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Estoril and Rio Ave

Who finishes with more points, Estoril or another club of your choice.

Estoril

Relegation: 29%Points (median): 32
Relegation: 26%Points (median): 33

Estoril finish with more points than Rio Ave in 43% of the seasons; Rio Ave, in 53%; they finish level on points in 4.0%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Estoril and Rio Ave
Points gap at the end of the season: Estoril and Rio Ave
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Estoril ahead by 31–40 pts00%
Estoril ahead by 21–30 pts20.7%
Estoril ahead by 11–20 pts289.3%
Estoril ahead by 1–10 pts9833%
level on points124.0%
Rio Ave ahead by 1–10 pts11739%
Rio Ave ahead by 11–20 pts3813%
Rio Ave ahead by 21–30 pts41.3%
Rio Ave ahead by 31–40 pts10.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 1 NovHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data