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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Porto

Liga Portugal forecast for Porto: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)
Champion
64%
Top 3
>99%

Relegation: below 1% in the simulations (17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted).

Expected points: 83 (90% of simulations between 74 and 92)Most likely finish: 1st (64%)Attack: 3rd · Defence: 1st (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Porto can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

1st
64%
2nd
25%
3rd
11%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st64%
2nd25%
3rd11%
4th0.1%
5th0%
6th0%
7th0%
8th0%
9th0%
10th0%
11th0%
12th0%
13th0%
14th0%
15th0%
16th0%
17th0%
18th0%

Next match

What is at stake for Porto against Vitória

Porto: title· Next match · Sun 8 Nov · 18:00 · away

Now
64%
If they win
69%
If they draw
58%
If they lose
52%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Porto winning this match: 62%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of winning the title, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Champion (%)
Champion (%)
ForecastChampion (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model16%
MD1 · 11 Aug18%
MD2 · 14 Aug18%
MD3 · 29 Aug19%
MD4 · 5 Sept24%
MD5 · 12 Sept22%
MD6 · 19 Sept26%
MD7 · 25 Sept51%
MD8 · 17 Oct49%
MD9 · 25 Oct61%
MD10 · 1 Nov64%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Porto's remaining games and see how the chance of winning the title moves, game by game. How it works

Marked as decisive: the 2 games where winning or losing moves Porto's title chance most, 24 to 27 percentage points between one result and the other; each of the others moves it 15 to 22.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 11Vitória(A)
  2. Matchday 12Sporting(H)decisive
  3. Matchday 13Santa Clara(A)
  4. Matchday 14Estrela(H)
  5. Matchday 15Famalicão(A)
  6. Matchday 16Nacional(H)
  7. Matchday 24Benfica(A)decisive
The other 17 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 17Sp. Braga(A)
  2. Matchday 18Alverca(A)
  3. Matchday 19Rio Ave(H)
  4. Matchday 20Arouca(A)
  5. Matchday 21Ac. Viseu(H)
  6. Matchday 22Moreirense(A)
  7. Matchday 23Casa Pia(H)
  8. Matchday 25Marítimo(H)
  9. Matchday 26Gil Vicente(H)
  10. Matchday 27Estoril(A)
  11. Matchday 28Vitória(H)
  12. Matchday 29Sporting(A)
  13. Matchday 30Santa Clara(H)
  14. Matchday 31Estrela(A)
  15. Matchday 32Famalicão(H)
  16. Matchday 33Nacional(A)
  17. Matchday 34Sp. Braga(H)

Title · now

64%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

Other clubs' games, in the published round and postponed, whose result moves Porto's title chance (now 64%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise. In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15 · matchday 10

    Benfica – Alverca

    Porto's title chance: 63% if Benfica win, 69% with a draw, 71% if Alverca win.

  2. Sat 7 Nov · 20:30 · matchday 11

    Sporting – Moreirense

    Porto's title chance: 64% if Sporting win, 68% with a draw, 68% if Moreirense win.

  3. Sun 8 Nov · 20:30 · matchday 11

    Estrela – Benfica

    Porto's title chance: 71% if Estrela win, 69% with a draw, 63% if Benfica win.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Porto and Benfica

Who finishes with more points, Porto or another club of your choice.

Porto

Title: 64%Points (median): 84
Title: 22%Points (median): 78

Porto finish with more points than Benfica in 77% of the seasons; Benfica, in 20%; they finish level on points in 3.0%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 5 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Porto and Benfica
Points gap at the end of the season: Porto and Benfica
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Porto ahead by 22–28 pts113.7%
Porto ahead by 15–21 pts3010%
Porto ahead by 8–14 pts8227%
Porto ahead by 1–7 pts10936%
level on points93.0%
Benfica ahead by 1–7 pts4214%
Benfica ahead by 8–14 pts165.3%
Benfica ahead by 15–21 pts10.3%
Benfica ahead by 22–28 pts00%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 1 NovHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data