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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Vitória

Liga Portugal forecast for Vitória: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)
Relegation
1.4%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 43 (90% of simulations between 33 and 54)Most likely finish: 8th (12%)Attack: 6th · Defence: 6th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Vitória can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
2.0%
5th
6.0%
6th
9.1%
7th
11%
8th
12%
9th
12%
10th
12%
11th
11%
12th
8.9%
13th
6.5%
14th
4.4%
15th
2.9%
16th
1.9%
17th
1.0%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th2.0%
5th6.0%
6th9.1%
7th11%
8th12%
9th12%
10th12%
11th11%
12th8.9%
13th6.5%
14th4.4%
15th2.9%
16th1.9%
17th1.0%
18th0.4%

8th is the most likely finish (12%); 75% of the simulations end between 6th and 12th.

Next match

What is at stake for Vitória against Gil Vicente

Vitória: relegation· Next match · Mon 2 Nov · 20:15 · away

Now
1.4%
If they win
0.7%
If they draw
1.4%
If they lose
2.0%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model1.0%
MD1 · 11 Aug3.0%
MD2 · 14 Aug2.7%
MD3 · 29 Aug1.4%
MD4 · 5 Sept1.7%
MD5 · 12 Sept2.0%
MD6 · 19 Sept3.1%
MD7 · 25 Sept2.9%
MD8 · 17 Oct3.0%
MD9 · 25 Oct1.9%
MD10 · 1 Nov1.4%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Vitória's relegation chance (now 1.4%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Vitória and Alverca

Who finishes with more points, Vitória or another club of your choice.

Vitória

Relegation: 1.4%Points (median): 43
Relegation: 1.5%Points (median): 43

Vitória finish with more points than Alverca in 47% of the seasons; Alverca, in 48%; they finish level on points in 5.0%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Vitória and Alverca
Points gap at the end of the season: Vitória and Alverca
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Vitória ahead by 22–28 pts10.3%
Vitória ahead by 15–21 pts155.0%
Vitória ahead by 8–14 pts3411%
Vitória ahead by 1–7 pts9030%
level on points155.0%
Alverca ahead by 1–7 pts8027%
Alverca ahead by 8–14 pts3913%
Alverca ahead by 15–21 pts206.7%
Alverca ahead by 22–28 pts62.0%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 1 NovHow the model works

The games Vitória has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Mon 2 Nov · 20:15Gil Vicenteaway · MD10postponed
  2. Sun 8 Nov · 18:00Portohome · MD11
  3. Sat 28 Novprovisional dateEstrelahome · MD12
  4. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateEstorilaway · MD13
  5. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateAlvercahome · MD14
  6. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateSanta Claraaway · MD15
  7. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateRio Avehome · MD16
  8. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateFamalicãoaway · MD17
  9. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateAroucaaway · MD18
  10. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateSportinghome · MD19
  11. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateNacionalaway · MD20
  12. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateSp. Bragahome · MD21
  13. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD22
  14. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD23
  15. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD24
  16. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateBenficahome · MD25
  17. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD26
  18. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateGil Vicentehome · MD27
  19. Sun 4 Aprprovisional datePortoaway · MD28
  20. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD29
  21. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD30
  22. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateAlvercaaway · MD31
  23. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateSanta Clarahome · MD32
  24. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD33
  25. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateFamalicãohome · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data