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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Santa Clara

Liga Portugal forecast for Santa Clara: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)

Champion, top 3 and relegation: below 1% in the simulations (relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted).

Expected points: 52 (90% of simulations between 42 and 62)Most likely finish: 5th (28%)Attack: 12th · Defence: 5th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Santa Clara can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
16%
5th
28%
6th
20%
7th
13%
8th
8.9%
9th
6.1%
10th
3.7%
11th
2.3%
12th
1.2%
13th
0.6%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0.3%
4th16%
5th28%
6th20%
7th13%
8th8.9%
9th6.1%
10th3.7%
11th2.3%
12th1.2%
13th0.6%
14th0.3%
15th0.1%
16th<0.1%
17th<0.1%
18th0%

5th is the most likely finish (28%); 47% of the simulations end between 5th and 6th.

Next match

What is at stake for Santa Clara

Next match · Sun 8 Nov · 15:30 · at home

Win
39%
Draw
31%
Lose
30%

This match's probabilities, from Santa Clara's side. Neither the title nor relegation reaches 1% for Santa Clara in this forecast.

Match analysis

The games Santa Clara has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Sun 8 Nov · 15:30Gil Vicentehome · MD11
  2. Sat 28 Novprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD12
  3. Sun 6 Decprovisional datePortohome · MD13
  4. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateEstorilaway · MD14
  5. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD15
  6. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateEstrelahome · MD16
  7. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateSportingaway · MD17
  8. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateNacionalaway · MD18
  9. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD19
  10. Sun 31 Janprovisional dateFamalicãoaway · MD20
  11. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateAlvercahome · MD21
  12. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD22
  13. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateAroucahome · MD23
  14. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateSp. Bragaaway · MD24
  15. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateCasa Piahome · MD25
  16. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateBenficaaway · MD26
  17. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateMarítimohome · MD27
  18. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD28
  19. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateMoreirensehome · MD29
  20. Sun 18 Aprprovisional datePortoaway · MD30
  21. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD31
  22. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateVitóriaaway · MD32
  23. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD33
  24. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateSportinghome · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data