Skip to content
Menu
Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Sporting

Liga Portugal forecast for Sporting: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)
Champion
14%
Top 3
99%

Relegation: below 1% in the simulations (17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted).

Expected points: 76 (90% of simulations between 67 and 85)Most likely finish: 3rd (52%)Attack: 1st · Defence: 2nd (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Sporting can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

1st
14%
2nd
33%
3rd
52%
4th
1.2%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st14%
2nd33%
3rd52%
4th1.2%
5th0.1%
6th0%
7th0%
8th0%
9th0%
10th0%
11th0%
12th0%
13th0%
14th0%
15th0%
16th0%
17th0%
18th0%

Next match

What is at stake for Sporting against Moreirense

Sporting: title· Next match · Sat 7 Nov · 20:30 · at home

Now
14%
If they win
15%
If they draw
8.1%
If they lose
6.6%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Sporting winning this match: 84%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of winning the title, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Champion (%)
Champion (%)
ForecastChampion (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model59%
MD1 · 11 Aug59%
MD2 · 14 Aug60%
MD3 · 29 Aug59%
MD4 · 5 Sept55%
MD5 · 12 Sept53%
MD6 · 19 Sept44%
MD7 · 25 Sept26%
MD8 · 17 Oct29%
MD9 · 25 Oct15%
MD10 · 1 Nov14%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Sporting's remaining games and see how the chance of winning the title moves, game by game. How it works

Marked as decisive: the 3 games where winning or losing moves Sporting's title chance most, 14 to 17 percentage points between one result and the other; each of the others moves it 7 to 12.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 11Moreirense(H)
  2. Matchday 12Porto(A)decisive
  3. Matchday 13Marítimo(H)
  4. Matchday 14Gil Vicente(A)
  5. Matchday 15Estoril(H)
  6. Matchday 16Benfica(A)decisive
  7. Matchday 29Porto(H)decisive
The other 17 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 17Santa Clara(H)
  2. Matchday 18Estrela(H)
  3. Matchday 19Vitória(A)
  4. Matchday 20Alverca(A)
  5. Matchday 21Rio Ave(H)
  6. Matchday 22Nacional(A)
  7. Matchday 23Famalicão(H)
  8. Matchday 24Arouca(A)
  9. Matchday 25Sp. Braga(H)
  10. Matchday 26Ac. Viseu(A)
  11. Matchday 27Casa Pia(H)
  12. Matchday 28Moreirense(A)
  13. Matchday 30Marítimo(A)
  14. Matchday 31Gil Vicente(H)
  15. Matchday 32Estoril(A)
  16. Matchday 33Benfica(H)
  17. Matchday 34Santa Clara(A)

Title · now

14%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

Other clubs' games, in the published round and postponed, whose result moves Sporting's title chance (now 14%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise. In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sun 8 Nov · 18:00 · matchday 11

    Vitória – Porto

    Sporting's title chance: 18% if Vitória win, 16% with a draw, 12% if Porto win.

  2. Sun 8 Nov · 20:30 · matchday 11

    Estrela – Benfica

    Sporting's title chance: 16% if Estrela win, 15% with a draw, 13% if Benfica win.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Sporting and Benfica

Who finishes with more points, Sporting or another club of your choice.

Sporting

Title: 14%Points (median): 76
Title: 22%Points (median): 78

Sporting finish with more points than Benfica in 37% of the seasons; Benfica, in 58%; they finish level on points in 5.0%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Sporting and Benfica
Points gap at the end of the season: Sporting and Benfica
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Sporting ahead by 19–24 pts00%
Sporting ahead by 13–18 pts134.3%
Sporting ahead by 7–12 pts3712%
Sporting ahead by 1–6 pts6120%
level on points155.0%
Benfica ahead by 1–6 pts8328%
Benfica ahead by 7–12 pts6923%
Benfica ahead by 13–18 pts155.0%
Benfica ahead by 19–24 pts72.3%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 1 NovHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data