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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Arouca

Liga Portugal forecast for Arouca: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)

Champion, top 3 and relegation: below 1% in the simulations (relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted).

Expected points: 49 (90% of simulations between 39 and 59)Most likely finish: 6th (18%)Attack: 9th · Defence: 10th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Arouca can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

4th
7.9%
5th
16%
6th
18%
7th
16%
8th
13%
9th
10%
10th
7.6%
11th
5.3%
12th
3.4%
13th
1.9%
14th
0.9%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0.1%
4th7.9%
5th16%
6th18%
7th16%
8th13%
9th10%
10th7.6%
11th5.3%
12th3.4%
13th1.9%
14th0.9%
15th0.4%
16th0.2%
17th0.1%
18th<0.1%

6th is the most likely finish (18%); 62% of the simulations end between 5th and 8th.

Next match

What is at stake for Arouca

Next match · Fri 6 Nov · 20:45 · away

Win
26%
Draw
27%
Lose
48%

This match's probabilities, from Arouca's side. Neither the title nor relegation reaches 1% for Arouca in this forecast.

Match analysis

The games Arouca has left

In date order, Lisbon time. The model prices the next round; later dates can still change.

  1. Fri 6 Nov · 20:45Famalicãoaway · MD11
  2. Sat 28 Novprovisional dateRio Avehome · MD12
  3. Sun 6 Decprovisional dateSp. Bragaaway · MD13
  4. Sun 13 Decprovisional dateAc. Viseuaway · MD14
  5. Sun 20 Decprovisional dateCasa Piahome · MD15
  6. Sun 27 Decprovisional dateGil Vicenteaway · MD16
  7. Sun 10 Janprovisional dateBenficahome · MD17
  8. Sun 17 Janprovisional dateVitóriahome · MD18
  9. Sun 24 Janprovisional dateMoreirenseaway · MD19
  10. Sun 31 Janprovisional datePortohome · MD20
  11. Sun 7 Febprovisional dateMarítimoaway · MD21
  12. Sun 14 Febprovisional dateEstorilhome · MD22
  13. Sun 21 Febprovisional dateSanta Claraaway · MD23
  14. Sun 28 Febprovisional dateSportinghome · MD24
  15. Sun 7 Marprovisional dateEstrelaaway · MD25
  16. Sun 14 Marprovisional dateAlvercahome · MD26
  17. Sun 21 Marprovisional dateNacionalaway · MD27
  18. Sun 4 Aprprovisional dateFamalicãohome · MD28
  19. Sun 11 Aprprovisional dateRio Aveaway · MD29
  20. Sun 18 Aprprovisional dateSp. Bragahome · MD30
  21. Sun 25 Aprprovisional dateAc. Viseuhome · MD31
  22. Sun 2 Mayprovisional dateCasa Piaaway · MD32
  23. Sun 9 Mayprovisional dateGil Vicentehome · MD33
  24. Sun 16 Mayprovisional dateBenficaaway · MD34
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data