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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Rio Ave

Liga Portugal forecast for Rio Ave: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)
Relegation
26%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 33 (90% of simulations between 24 and 43)Most likely finish: 16th (14%)Attack: 10th · Defence: 17th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Rio Ave can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

7th
0.8%
8th
1.5%
9th
2.5%
10th
3.9%
11th
5.6%
12th
8.1%
13th
11%
14th
13%
15th
14%
16th
14%
17th
14%
18th
12%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th<0.1%
5th0.1%
6th0.4%
7th0.8%
8th1.5%
9th2.5%
10th3.9%
11th5.6%
12th8.1%
13th11%
14th13%
15th14%
16th14%
17th14%
18th12%

16th is the most likely finish (14%); 77% of the simulations end between 13th and 18th.

Next match

What is at stake for Rio Ave against Sp. Braga

Rio Ave: relegation· Next match · Sun 8 Nov · 20:30 · at home

Now
26%
If they win
16%
If they draw
24%
If they lose
30%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Rio Ave winning this match: 18%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model14%
MD1 · 11 Aug29%
MD2 · 14 Aug29%
MD3 · 29 Aug23%
MD4 · 5 Sept22%
MD5 · 12 Sept28%
MD6 · 19 Sept30%
MD7 · 25 Sept23%
MD8 · 17 Oct14%
MD9 · 25 Oct23%
MD10 · 1 Nov26%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Rio Ave's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Rio Ave's relegation chance by 13 to 19 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 11Sp. Braga(H)
  2. Matchday 12Arouca(A)
  3. Matchday 13Casa Pia(H)
  4. Matchday 14Marítimo(A)
  5. Matchday 15Benfica(H)
  6. Matchday 16Vitória(A)
The other 18 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 17Moreirense(H)
  2. Matchday 18Gil Vicente(H)
  3. Matchday 19Porto(A)
  4. Matchday 20Estoril(H)
  5. Matchday 21Sporting(A)
  6. Matchday 22Santa Clara(H)
  7. Matchday 23Estrela(A)
  8. Matchday 24Alverca(H)
  9. Matchday 25Nacional(A)
  10. Matchday 26Famalicão(A)
  11. Matchday 27Ac. Viseu(H)
  12. Matchday 28Sp. Braga(A)
  13. Matchday 29Arouca(H)
  14. Matchday 30Casa Pia(A)
  15. Matchday 31Marítimo(H)
  16. Matchday 32Benfica(A)
  17. Matchday 33Vitória(H)
  18. Matchday 34Moreirense(A)

Relegation · now

26%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

No other clubs' game in this forecast, in the published round or postponed, moves Rio Ave's relegation chance (now 26%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Rio Ave and Estoril

Who finishes with more points, Rio Ave or another club of your choice.

Rio Ave

Relegation: 26%Points (median): 33
Relegation: 29%Points (median): 32

Rio Ave finish with more points than Estoril in 53% of the seasons; Estoril, in 43%; they finish level on points in 4.0%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Rio Ave and Estoril
Points gap at the end of the season: Rio Ave and Estoril
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Rio Ave ahead by 31–40 pts10.3%
Rio Ave ahead by 21–30 pts41.3%
Rio Ave ahead by 11–20 pts3813%
Rio Ave ahead by 1–10 pts11739%
level on points124.0%
Estoril ahead by 1–10 pts9833%
Estoril ahead by 11–20 pts289.3%
Estoril ahead by 21–30 pts20.7%
Estoril ahead by 31–40 pts00%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 1 NovHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data