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Liga Portugal

2026-27 season

Casa Pia

Liga Portugal forecast for Casa Pia: end-of-season chances and what changes in the next match.

Forecast of 1 Nov, with 7 of matchday 10’s 9 games played · next forecast after matchday 10 (2 Nov)
Relegation
38%

Champion and top 3: below 1% in the simulations

Relegation: 17th or 18th; 16th plays off and is not counted.

Expected points: 31 (90% of simulations between 22 and 41)Most likely finish: 18th (20%)Attack: 18th · Defence: 15th (strength estimated by the model among the 18 clubs, 1st = best; every club)

Position distribution

Probability of finishing in each league position.

Where Casa Pia can finish

Share of simulations finishing in each position, on a 0–100% scale.

8th
0.7%
9th
1.3%
10th
2.2%
11th
3.7%
12th
5.5%
13th
8.2%
14th
11%
15th
13%
16th
16%
17th
18%
18th
20%
View as table: Probability of finishing in each position
Probability of finishing in each position
PositionProbability
1st0%
2nd0%
3rd0%
4th0%
5th0.1%
6th0.2%
7th0.4%
8th0.7%
9th1.3%
10th2.2%
11th3.7%
12th5.5%
13th8.2%
14th11%
15th13%
16th16%
17th18%
18th20%

18th is the most likely finish (20%); 67% of the simulations end between 15th and 18th.

Next match

What is at stake for Casa Pia against Alverca

Casa Pia: relegation· Next match · Sat 7 Nov · 18:00 · away

Now
38%
If they win
26%
If they draw
38%
If they lose
44%

End-of-season chances conditional on this match's result — not the chance of that result itself. Probability of Casa Pia winning this match: 23%.

Match analysis

Probability over time

Chance of relegation, matchday by matchday

Each dot is a published forecast, with the matches played up to then; each one's date is in the tip and the table. The pre-season point (MD0) comes from the previous model.

View as table: Relegation (%)
Relegation (%)
ForecastRelegation (%)
MD0 · 10 Aug · previous model25%
MD1 · 11 Aug42%
MD2 · 14 Aug42%
MD3 · 29 Aug54%
MD4 · 5 Sept63%
MD5 · 12 Sept63%
MD6 · 19 Sept66%
MD7 · 25 Sept47%
MD8 · 17 Oct53%
MD9 · 25 Oct41%
MD10 · 1 Nov38%
Source: estimador.pt model, 50,000 simulations per forecastUpdated 1 November 2026How the model works

Build your scenario

Pick results in Casa Pia's remaining games and see how the chance of relegation moves, game by game. How it works

No game stands out: between winning and losing, each game left moves Casa Pia's relegation chance by 15 to 22 percentage points.

With one pick, the number is the conditional probability read from the 50,000 simulations. With several, the picks are combined as if independent of one another, an approximation: the published file does not hold combinations of results.

  1. Matchday 11Alverca(A)
  2. Matchday 12Sp. Braga(H)
  3. Matchday 13Rio Ave(A)
  4. Matchday 14Nacional(H)
  5. Matchday 15Arouca(A)
  6. Matchday 16Famalicão(H)
The other 18 games, to matchday 34
  1. Matchday 17Ac. Viseu(A)
  2. Matchday 18Marítimo(H)
  3. Matchday 19Benfica(A)
  4. Matchday 20Gil Vicente(H)
  5. Matchday 21Moreirense(A)
  6. Matchday 22Vitória(H)
  7. Matchday 23Porto(A)
  8. Matchday 24Estoril(H)
  9. Matchday 25Santa Clara(A)
  10. Matchday 26Estrela(H)
  11. Matchday 27Sporting(A)
  12. Matchday 28Alverca(H)
  13. Matchday 29Sp. Braga(A)
  14. Matchday 30Rio Ave(H)
  15. Matchday 31Nacional(A)
  16. Matchday 32Arouca(H)
  17. Matchday 33Famalicão(A)
  18. Matchday 34Ac. Viseu(H)

Relegation · now

38%

Pick win (W), draw (D) or lose (L) in a game to see what changes.

Other games that weigh

Other clubs' games, in the published round and postponed, whose result moves Casa Pia's relegation chance (now 38%) by 3 percentage points or more. Below 3 percentage points, the difference between results blends into the simulations’ noise. In kickoff order, Lisbon time.

  1. Sat 7 Nov · 15:30 · matchday 11

    Nacional – Ac. Viseu

    Casa Pia's relegation chance: 40% if Nacional win, 38% with a draw, 36% if Ac. Viseu win.

Final duel

Points gap at the end of the season: Casa Pia and Nacional

Who finishes with more points, Casa Pia or another club of your choice.

Casa Pia

Relegation: 38%Points (median): 31
Relegation: 32%Points (median): 32

Casa Pia finish with more points than Nacional in 49% of the seasons; Nacional, in 47%; they finish level on points in 4.3%.

We counted 300 complete seasons drawn at random from the 50,000 simulations, so each of these percentages can be about 6 percentage points higher or lower.

View as table: Points gap at the end of the season: Casa Pia and Nacional
Points gap at the end of the season: Casa Pia and Nacional
DifferenceSeasonsShare
Casa Pia ahead by 22–28 pts31.0%
Casa Pia ahead by 15–21 pts103.3%
Casa Pia ahead by 8–14 pts4415%
Casa Pia ahead by 1–7 pts9030%
level on points134.3%
Nacional ahead by 1–7 pts8227%
Nacional ahead by 8–14 pts3612%
Nacional ahead by 15–21 pts196.3%
Nacional ahead by 22–28 pts31.0%
Source: estimador.pt model, 300 seasons drawn from 50,000 simulationsForecast of 1 NovHow the model works
Source: estimador.pt's bivariate Poisson Bayesian model, fitted to goals and shots on target; 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season (forecast of 1 November 2026). How the model worksOpen data