Porto·ForwardScoring skill
Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
What the number means: if Deniz Gül plays 90 minutes at a neutral venue against an average Liga defence, the model expects 0.11 more goals than if that place were taken by a replacement-level player — the kind of signing any club can make for free. Goals are capped (winsorized) before the estimate, so one four-goal afternoon is not read as permanent skill.
The model puts 90% probability on the true value lying between 0.01 and 0.24. Fewer minutes, wider interval.
Minutes, matches and goals from 2023-24 to 2026-27 · Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
Season by season
Goals go up and down; the skill estimate barely moves. That is by design: the model only admits a change in skill when the data demand one, and across this player's three Liga Portugal seasons they never have.
| Season | Minutes | Goals | Skill (with margin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 462 | 1 | +0.11 |
| 2025-26 | 1,180 | 5 | +0.12 |
| 2026-27 | 92 | 0 | +0.11 |
There is no telling whether he improved
Not enough minutes to compare seasons: in 2026-27 he played 92 minutes (the minimum to compare is 450), so that season's estimate is almost all the model's starting point.
Latest recorded appearances
Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
- 2026-27 season
- 23 Aug23 Aug 2026Aroucahome18' · subno goals6.8
- 15 Aug15 Aug 2026Rio Aveaway66' · startedno goals6.1
- 9 Aug9 Aug 2026Alvercahome8' · subno goals6.5
- 2025-26 season
- 16 May16 May 2026Santa Clarahome56' · startedno goals6.3
- 10 May10 May 2026AVSaway90' · started17.0
- 2 May2 May 2026Alvercahome90' · startedno goals6.5
- 26 Apr26 Apr 2026Estrelaaway61' · started27.0
- 19 Apr19 Apr 2026Tondelahome88' · startedno goals6.9
Match-by-match data (SofaScore). The rating is the provider's, not the model's — the model only uses goals, minutes and opponent.
Bayesian player model fitted on 31,272 individual appearances since 2023-24, with a 600-minute minimum to qualify. Club = current squad (2026-27); the season-by-season table shows where he played each season. The finishing and contribution data runs to 25 October 2026, with the 2026-27 season in progress: minutes, goals and recent appearances stop there until those models are refitted; contested possession, goalkeepers and defenders use the seasons their own files list.