Casa Pia·ForwardScoring skill
Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
What the number means: if Henrique Araújo plays 90 minutes at a neutral venue against an average Liga defence, the model expects 0.12 more goals than if that place were taken by a replacement-level player — the kind of signing any club can make for free. Goals are capped (winsorized) before the estimate, so one four-goal afternoon is not read as permanent skill.
The model puts 90% probability on the true value lying between 0.02 and 0.24. Fewer minutes, wider interval.
Minutes, matches and goals from 2023-24 to 2026-27 · Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
Season by season
Goals go up and down; the skill estimate barely moves. That is by design: the model only admits a change in skill when the data demand one, and across this player's four Liga Portugal seasons they never have.
| Season | Minutes | Goals | Skill (with margin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 695 | 0 | +0.11 |
| 2024-25 | 1,118 | 6 | +0.13 |
| 2025-26 | 29 | 0 | +0.12 |
| 2026-27 | 483 | 1 | +0.12 |
There is no telling whether he improved
Not enough minutes to compare seasons: in 2025-26 he played 29 minutes (the minimum to compare is 450), so that season's estimate is almost all the model's starting point.
Latest recorded appearances
Data to 25 Oct 2026 (2026-27 season in progress)
- 24 Oct24 Oct 2026Estrelaaway30' · subno goals6.9
- 10 Oct10 Oct 2026Santa Clarahome54' · startedno goals6.4
- 20 Sep20 Sep 2026Estorilaway45' · startedno goals5.8
- 12 Sep12 Sep 2026Portohome74' · started17.0
- 6 Sep6 Sep 2026Vitóriaaway41' · subno goals6.3
- 30 Aug30 Aug 2026Moreirensehome12' · subno goals6.4
- 24 Aug24 Aug 2026Gil Vicenteaway60' · startedno goals6.3
- 17 Aug17 Aug 2026Benficahome77' · startedno goals6.4
Match-by-match data (SofaScore). The rating is the provider's, not the model's — the model only uses goals, minutes and opponent.
Bayesian player model fitted on 31,272 individual appearances since 2023-24, with a 600-minute minimum to qualify. Club = current squad (2026-27); the season-by-season table shows where he played each season. The finishing and contribution data runs to 25 October 2026, with the 2026-27 season in progress: minutes, goals and recent appearances stop there until those models are refitted; contested possession, goalkeepers and defenders use the seasons their own files list.